Forecast vs Actual ・ 番付予想の答え合わせ
Nagoya 2026 Banzuke: Forecast vs Actual
Forecast based on Natsu 2026 results vs the official banzuke
580 rikishi checked across all divisions (not listed/retired: 3, new/unpredicted: 8)
Forecast accuracy — Makuuchi
Total rikishi
42
Not listed/retired: 0, wrong division: 0, new: 0
Within 1 slot
45%
19 within 1 slot
Avg. deviation
1.5
Rows with a numeric diff only
ExactCloseOffBig missWrong divisionNot listed
Makuuchi breakdown
| Name | Current | Predicted | Actual | Diff | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoshoryu | East Yokozuna | East Yokozuna | East Yokozuna | 0 | Exact |
| Onosato | West Yokozuna | West Yokozuna | West Yokozuna | 0 | Exact |
| Kirishima | East Ozeki | East Ozeki | East Ozeki | 0 | Exact |
| Kotozakura | East Ozeki | West Ozeki | West Ozeki | 0 | Exact |
| Atamifuji | East Sekiwake | East Sekiwake | East Sekiwake | 0 | Exact |
| Aonishiki | West Ozeki | West Sekiwake | West Sekiwake | 0 | Exact |
| Wakatakakage | East Komusubi | East Komusubi | East Sekiwake | — | Off |
| Kotoshoho | West Sekiwake | West Komusubi | West Sekiwake | — | Off |
| Yoshinofuji | East M2 | East M1 | East Komusubi | — | Off |
| Takayasu | West Komusubi | West M1 | West M7 | -6.0 | Big miss |
| Churanoumi | East M6 | East M2 | West M2 | -0.5 | Close |
| Oho | West M3 | West M2 | West Komusubi | — | Off |
| Gonoyama | West M4 | East M3 | East M2 | +1.0 | Close |
| Fujinokawa | East M1 | West M3 | East M1 | +2.5 | Off |
| Hiradoumi | East M3 | East M4 | East M3 | +1.0 | Close |
| Takanosho | West M1 | West M4 | West M1 | +3.0 | Off |
| Daieisho | East M4 | East M5 | East M4 | +1.0 | Close |
| Ichiyamamoto | West M2 | West M5 | West M4 | +1.0 | Close |
| Hakunofuji | West M10 | East M6 | West M3 | +2.5 | Off |
| Oshoma | East M8 | West M6 | West M5 | +1.0 | Close |
| Fujiseiun | West M6 | East M7 | West M6 | +0.5 | Close |
| Shodai | West M5 | West M7 | East M6 | +1.5 | Close |
| Ura | East M11 | East M8 | East M5 | +3.0 | Off |
| Kotoeiho | East M13 | West M8 | East M7 | +1.5 | Close |
| Asanoyama | East M10 | East M9 | East M10 | -1.0 | Close |
| Wakamotoharu | East M5 | West M9 | East M8 | +1.5 | Close |
| Tobizaru | East M15 | East M10 | West M9 | +0.5 | Close |
| Wakanosho | East M16 | West M10 | East M11 | -0.5 | Close |
| Roga | West M14 | East M11 | West M8 | +2.5 | Off |
| Mitakeumi | East M14 | West M11 | West M11 | 0 | Exact |
| Kinbozan | West M11 | East M12 | East M14 | -2.0 | Close |
| Chiyoshoma | East M7 | West M12 | West M10 | +2.0 | Close |
| Shishi | East M12 | East M13 | West M14 | -1.5 | Close |
| Abi | East M9 | West M13 | West M12 | +1.0 | Close |
| Asahakuryu | West M8 | East M14 | East M12 | +2.0 | Close |
| Nishikifuji | West M9 | West M14 | East M13 | +1.5 | Close |
| Fujiryoga | East M17 | East M15 | East M9 | +6.0 | Big miss |
| Asakoryu | West M7 | West M15 | West M16 | -1.0 | Close |
| Takerufuji | West J2 | East M16 | West M13 | +2.5 | Off |
| Onokatsu | East J1 | West M16 | East M15 | +1.5 | Close |
| Kazuma | East J6 | East M17 | West M15 | +1.5 | Close |
| Daiseizan | West J1 | West M17 | East M16 | +1.5 | Close |
"Current" shows the rank as of the basho the forecast was based on. Forecast is generated by a simplified model (see the next-basho forecast page for details). "Diff" applies to Maegashira and below, shown in 0.5 increments to account for East/West (e.g. East→West at the same slot is 0.5, a full slot off is 1.0; negative means the actual rank ended up lower than predicted, positive means higher). Yokozuna/Ozeki/Sekiwake/Komusubi have no meaningful slot number, so an East/West miss within the same title is "Close" while a different title (e.g. Sekiwake vs Komusubi) is shown as "Off" with no number. A different division entirely is likewise shown as "—" / "Wrong division". The diff color matches its verdict label.